A protester wearing a #RejectFinanceBill2024 shirt holds the Kenyan flag during a demonstration in Nairobi. Photo by MC G’Zay, Pexels.

Europe's transition away from fossil fuels has become increasingly difficult as successive geopolitical crises continue to drive up energy prices. The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and renewed instability in the Middle East have exposed Europe's continued reliance on imported energy, leaving businesses and households vulnerable to higher costs. Young Europeans have been among those most affected because many have lower incomes and often live in older, less energy-efficient homes.

The 2024 European Youth Survey highlights a large portion of EU youth citing rising prices and inflation as a primary concern. Nowhere is this price effect more felt than in the energy sector. Supply chain disruptions during COVID-19 and the sanctions regime that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine have kept gas prices elevated well beyond the peaks of the crisis years. Electricity prices have climbed alongside gas prices. With the current exchange in attacks between the US and Iran and the retaliatory closing of the Strait of Hormuz impacting oil distribution, the third shock in a decade is ongoing. High energy prices are becoming the new norm in Europe. 

With its 2022 REPower EU plan, the European Union has positioned itself as a global leader in the energy transition, prioritizing energy independence. Yet the gap between promises made and promises kept is being felt by young Europeans, still bearing the cost of the EU's continued reliance on imported fossil fuels.

Price Shocks: COVID-19 & Russian Invasion of Ukraine

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, oil and gas demand plummeted, but Russia and OPEC nations refused to cut production, andglobal prices fell dramatically as a result. Throughout the pandemic, financial and commodity markets grew increasingly intertwined, marking a shift in energy markets: oil and gas prices began responding to broader industry and global trends rather than preceding market fundamentals. 

As COVID restrictions loosened, pent-up demand from a restless populace drove an increase in consumer spending and subsequently oil and gas prices. 

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, energy markets responded quickly with prices jumping by 15% in March, according to the World Economic Forum. Although Russia made up 22.9% of the EU’s energy, import sanctions quickly followed. While the efficacy of these sanctions is debated, the effect on European inflation was outsized. 

EU Response

In May of 2022 the REPower EU plan arose to address the problems of energy dependence that the Russian invasion had laid bare. The primary goal of the plan was to reduce energy dependence on foreign nations by increasing renewable energy sources, decreasing energy consumption, and diversifying sources of oil, gas, and uranium. The so-called “energy trilemma” was meant to serve as a balance of priorities so that affordable and clean energy could be delivered to all. 

However, with the EU falling behind on their renewable energy targets, they are left to rely on foreign energy sources, namely from the US, Norway, and North Africa. While diversification was a stated pillar of REPowerEU, it has functioned less as a transition strategy towards a clean energy future, but rather as a convenient way to distract from the lackluster strides made towards the transition. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU is significantly behind on its REPower EU clean energy targets, with unequal implementation across member states being cited as a primary concern. Cultural and political differences between member states may explain varying phases in the green transition process. 

The Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), for example, is leading the charge. An abundance of natural resources means that the peninsula has already invested heavily in renewable energy projects without waiting on decisions coming from Brussels. Policymakers in the region are working on pushing the narrative of the green transition as an economic driver and safe and reliable investment opportunity. The Iberian Industry and Energy Transition Initiative (IETI) published by the consulting firm McKinsey outlines how Spain and Portugal can meet the moment, and accelerate their own energy transition irrespective of decisions made elsewhere in the EU. This shift is not without significant challenges. A days-long blackout in April of 2025 caused by weaknesses in Spain’s grid, highlighted some potential considerations for grid operators and energy providers as they shift supply away from fossil fuels. The crisis also raised concerns about the ongoing energy transition. These anxieties have been muted in Spain and Portugal, which have been relatively insulated from the oil and gas price shocks stemming from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Germany on the other hand, though phasing out lignite and hard coal production, remains dependent on coal. In 2020, only35% of the country’s energy came from renewable sources, with coal accounting for an equal share. While coal is a domestic energy source, it is far from a sustainable long-term solution. This concern weighs heavily on European youth alongside rising energy costs.

European Youth Face Trouble

With high energy costs affecting the economic reality for young Europeans, many feel their concerns are being ignored. The 2024 European Youth Survey highlights this. Equally pressing as those cited in the survey is climate change and other environmental concerns. This creates tension. Young Europeans are simultaneously demanding faster action on renewable energy and paying the cost of the EU's delayed transition towards renewables. Renters, entry-level workers, and students often living in shared flats and cheaper accommodations end up paying higher utility bills. Unlike homeowners, they cannot insulate their homes or install solar panels. Unlike established businesses, they cannot offset raised costs via price changes.

These grievances were shared during the cost-of-living and inflation protests that swept Europe in 2022. Young people were visible among the demonstrators, protesting rising bills and the pace of the green transition that had been promised as a solution to the environmental and economic concerns of the decade. 

One protestor told Reuters, “you get back home to your children, you want your house to be warm. You should not be having to make calculations on using energy.”

The EU's response has done little to address these grievances. Rather than accelerating the renewable buildout that would reduce structural exposure to fossil fuel price swings, the EU's strategy has leaned on the diversification pillar of the energy trilemma, prioritizing stable energy supply over affordability or sustainability. Reshuffling import relationships has temporarily lowered prices, but has done little to reduce the structural problems that remain in place. 

New Crisis Emerging

The US-Israeli attacks on Iran have exposed, once again, the fragility of Europe's energy position. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with Europe's vulnerability centered on LNG being highlighted.The parallel with Russia's invasion of Ukraine is clear, impacts of a geopolitical crisis the EU did not initiate are being absorbed disproportionately by European consumers.

Europe's exposure to geopolitical shocks remains rooted in its continued reliance on imported fossil fuels traded on volatile global markets. The Iran crisis reaffirms that the EU must do significantly more to protect its energy position. Each time Europe reshuffles its supply relationships without accelerating domestic clean energy production, it continues passing down increased costs onto consumers, with young consumers disproportionately bearing the cost. 

Conclusion

The EU's response to the energy crises of the past decade has been substantial in ambition, however, they fail to meet their promises. REPowerEU promised a solution by reducing consumption, expanding renewables, and diversifying supply. In practice, the third pillar has carried the most weight, with the EU pivoting toward US, Norway, and North African liquified natural gas (LNG) to wean off Russian supply. The transition has kept energy flowing into the EU in the meantime, but has failed to protect the EU from future crises. 

Shifting dependence from one set of foreign suppliers to another does not fundamentally alter the EU's structural vulnerability. Each new energy supply relationship carries geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the renewable energy expansion plan that would insulate European consumers from future price shocks remains significantly behind schedule. 

How long can dependence substitute for energy independence before the next shock arrives? For young renters and workers already affected by European inflation, this precarity demonstrates how EU leadership has neglected the most vulnerable. REPowerEU has stabilized the grid, but it has done so by reshuffling risk rather than eliminating it, leaving young consumers exposed to the next crisis. 

Author Bio: Efrata Eshetu is a third-year undergraduate student at Middlebury College, where she majors in International Politics and Economics and minors in Global Health. Her academic interests center on African migration, women’s rights, and the intersection of religion and policymaking across the continent.